According to Mysteel, Alcoa announced a production cut on August 30, and its Lista electrolytic aluminum plant in Norway will cut production by one-third due to high energy costs. The aluminum plant has a capacity of 94,000 tons/year, and the reduction will be completed within 14 days, involving a capacity of 31,000 tons/year.
It is reported that Rio Tinto will build a new aluminum recycling facility at its Arvida plant in Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean, Quebec. The new project is planned to invest C$35 million (US$29 million) with an initial capacity of 30,000 tons/year. The recycling plant is expected to begin operations in the second quarter of 2024 and will effectively expand Rio Tinto’s supply of low-carbon aluminum products in the construction, packaging and automotive sectors.
According to the meteorological department forecast, the next ten days in western China to continue more rainfall weather, the accumulated rainfall will be from the early significantly less than the same period of the year to more than 40% to 1 times more than normal, local areas more than 2 times, may occur drought and flooding rapid turn, Sichuan hydropower is expected to quickly restore.
Zhongfu Industry: Received notice from relevant departments, this Guangyuan Linfeng, Guangyuan Zhongfu involved in the suspension of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in August 28, 2022 onwards began to resume production in an orderly manner.
Institutional view
Donghai Futures.
Electrolytic aluminum supply-side pressure is obvious, new and resumed production capacity currently does not slow down the pace of production, July China’s electrolytic aluminum production of about 3.5 million tons, an increase of 6.74% year-on-year, the short-term domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity continued to raise to 41.59 million tons.
At present, Sichuan production cuts affect part of the aluminum ingot supply, inventory accumulation is expected to slow down. Last week, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprise start-up rate fell 0.3% week-on-week at 65.4%, but with the high temperature weather and the gradual end of the off-season, the subsequent enterprise start-up is expected to grow.
Overall, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum enterprises to reduce production disturbances, the market worries about the subsequent supply side of the increased sentiment, but aluminum prices upward space is still inhibited by weak downstream demand, short-term aluminum prices are expected to maintain oscillating trend.
Dayoshi Futures.
Energy crisis impact electrolytic aluminum production, carbon neutral and control capacity expansion, supply disturbance is dominant, downstream demand is not strong, aluminum bar inventory is large but declining, real estate continued weak rise.
Carbon neutral catalyze aluminum industry change, long-term favorable aluminum prices, Russia-Ukraine war stimulation, domestic consumption consumption is not good, aluminum prices oscillating operation.
Post time: Sep-01-2022