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Short-term aluminum prices are expected to maintain the oscillating trend

Short-term aluminum prices are expected to maintain the oscillating trend

On the spot side, the LME aluminium spot discount of $33.05/mt, compared to a discount of $35.75/mt in the previous session. Yesterday, the main contract 2206 opened at 19845 yuan / ton, the intraday session on the road, touching a high of 20320 yuan / ton, again back to 20000 yuan / ton a line above, the final close at 20265 yuan / ton, compared with the previous session closing price rose 420 yuan / ton, or 2.12%; turnover of 290,000 hands, down 66,700 hands; position 185,000 hands, down 5189 hands. Yesterday’s early strong upward movement, the first trading session of Shanghai aluminum short position reduction, the plate rose to more than 20000 yuan / ton, South China spot market buy Hing to good, coupled with large long orders to receive goods. Yesterday, South China spot lift firm, Foshan aluminum price to 05 contract lift 90 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, the average spot price recorded 20,240 yuan / ton, up 510 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, the second trading session, the plate continued to pull up, some traders shipping enthusiasm fell lift raise shipments, downstream wait and see to receive goods, the actual transaction to Foshan aluminum price average price to lift 10 yuan / ton -Lift 110 yuan / ton near the absolute transaction price concentrated in 20250-20350 yuan / ton, Guangdong and Shanghai spread expanded to 120 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventories, as of May 9, domestic aluminium ingot stocks were 1.03 million tonnes, down 0.3 million tonnes from the previous week. As of May 11, LME aluminum inventories decreased by 0.635 million tons to 553,900 tons compared with the previous trading day.

Outlook: Aluminium prices rebounded yesterday. Epidemic, May 10 Shanghai added 228 cases of new crown pneumonia local confirmed cases and 1259 cases of local asymptomatic infected, the city has 8 districts and Pudong part of the street town social surface basic clearance. With the further success of the prevention and control of the epidemic in Shanghai, some short majors began to take profits after the Shanghai aluminum hit a new low since New Year’s Day, driving aluminum prices to stop falling and rebound, spot offers actively follow up more than 500 yuan. According to April customs data, the export volume of unwrought aluminum is about 596,900 tons, up 0.42% ringgit, up 36.49% year-on-year, 2022 January-April unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports 2.2252 million tons, up 29.2% year-on-year from January-April last year. On the inventory side, electrolytic aluminum social inventory fell slightly from the previous year, and overseas inventory slipped to about 550,000 tons, which is at a historical low. Supply-side view, April electrolytic aluminum costs remain at 17,320 yuan / ton, the current profit still has room, short-term aluminum plant will maintain the original plan to increase production; demand side, after the epidemic resumed work and production scale back up, market confidence.

Price, is expected to maintain the short-term aluminum prices oscillating trend, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices currently still belong to the continuous setback after the restorative rebound, the real reversal also needs the epidemic under the confidence of stability, especially real estate, automotive and other terminal demand links appear strong recovery signal.

Strategy: unilateral: neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral.

Risk points: 1, liquidity tightening faster than expected. 2, consumption far less than expected. 3, the domestic epidemic situation and control policies.

Post time: May-13-2022