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Global aluminum supply shortage of 916,000 tons in January-July

Global aluminum supply shortage of 916,000 tons in January-July

The latest report data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on Wednesday showed that the global primary aluminum market had a supply shortage of 916,000 tons in January-July 2022, compared with a shortage of 1,558,000 tons for the whole of 2021. global primary aluminum demand in January-July 2022 was 40,192,000 tons, down 215,000 tons from the same period in 2021. global primary aluminum production in January-July 2022 decreased by 0.7% year-on-year. Despite a slight increase in the supply of imported raw materials in the first few months of 2022, China’s production is estimated at 22.945 million tons and now accounts for about 58% of total world production. global primary aluminum production in July 2022 was 5.572 million tons and demand was 5.839 million tons.

According to SMM, as of September 22, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 666,000 tons, 0.9 million tons less than last Thursday’s inventory, 19,000 tons less than this Monday’s inventory, 122,000 tons less than the inventory of the same period last year, 11,000 tons less than the monthly inventory at the end of August. Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory began a downward trend, this Thursday ingot inventory fell to 666,000 tons, compared with the same period in the history of the view at historically low levels.

According to the SMM, the mainstream flat copper lift firmly 500 yuan / ton mark, such a high lift is inhibited before the “November” holiday downstream stocking expectations, while the inflow of imported copper is still available, the approaching holiday pressure on the holders, but some holders believe that after the Fed meeting, copper prices are slightly stronger than expected, the recent downstream into the market or will increase to support the lift.

According to Mysteel, the General Administration of Customs statistics show that in August 2022 copper scrap imports were 154,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7% YoY and an increase of 18.6% YoY; January-August 2022 cumulative imports were 1,190,300 tons, an increase of 8.1% YoY. August copper scrap imports decreased slightly YoY, but overall maintained a high level of imports.

It is expected that copper scrap imports in September can still maintain a certain amount of imports, the ring than in August or have room to increase. Data show that the profit and loss line of copper scrap imports in September is still positive, stimulating import traders import motivation. Secondly, the domestic spot supply of copper scrap is tight, the difference between fine scrap shows a low running trend, part of the domestic profit waste enterprises to maintain the production of orders, turn to the purchase of imported copper scrap, imported copper scrap demand increases, or surge copper scrap imports.

For the major asset classes trend, domestic and foreign monetary and fiscal policies and industry fundamentals divergence, will make the overseas-led dollar-denominated commodities face greater pressure, while the domestic yuan-denominated commodities are relatively resistant to some, especially China’s continuous introduction of stable economy to protect the exchange and other policy measures “combination of fists”, the traditional infrastructure and new energy Consumption-led commodity prices play a certain role in supporting the bottom. Overall, the current main line of commodity logic or look at the global macro-led asset allocation and demand prospects, the Fed is expected to aggressive rate hike 75 basis points in September to curb high inflation, while the spillover effect of interest rate hikes or increased capital outflows from some economies, financial market turmoil, currency devaluation and other shocks, while risk assets need to be alert to the end of September and early October there is a high level of further retracement risk.

For non-ferrous metals, the recent copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc and other varieties are not lacking in the phase of the main funds to promote the near-month “squeeze water” industry, this year the market funds perversely gathered in the near-month, the entity industry and institutions in the supply chain instability under the lack of confidence in the far-month layout, short-term strength is more reflected in the spot and near-month, medium and long-term pessimism is more reflected in the Far month, investors especially for October near delivery of non-ferrous near-month contract directional options to do a good job of coping with the plan, it is recommended to do a good job of capital management and risk control, in advance of the holiday to do a good job of shifting positions for the month to prepare, take the initiative to reduce and respond to the threat of potential market volatility amplification, the trend of the fourth quarter non-ferrous volatility amplification center of gravity is more likely to move down.

In terms of copper concentrate demand, compared to June expectations, demand for copper concentrate was adjusted again, mainly based on recent domestic and international refined copper production changes and production expectations for the fourth quarter. According to SMM refined copper production caliber, August refined copper production of 857,000 tons, the cumulative production so far only increased by 15,000 tons compared with last year, even if the average monthly production of the remaining four months to maintain a level of 875,000 tons or more, the annual production increased by only 230,000 tons, slightly lower than the expected 300,000 tons. At the same time, entering August, the supply side of raw materials is relatively loose, and the quarterly gap in raw materials continues to converge, leading to a sharp recovery in TC since August. In addition, overseas fuel costs soared and European smelters may be affected by natural gas to control output. As a result, the global copper concentrate demand continues to be revised downward in the balance sheet by about 90,000 tons to 18.32 million tons, an increase of about 1.6% year-on-year.

On September 22, spot-Shanghai copper after close basis difference was 480 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; spot-Shanghai aluminum after close basis difference was -25 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; spot-Shanghai lead after close basis difference was -5 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; spot-Shanghai zinc after close basis difference was 330 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; spot-Shanghai nickel after close basis difference was 3,850 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; spot-Shanghai nickel after close basis difference was 3,800 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot-Shanghai zinc after close basis difference is 330 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; spot-Shanghai tin after close basis difference is 3850 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; spot-Shanghai nickel after close basis difference is 4300 yuan/ton, up 5000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.


Post time: Sep-26-2022