The main force of Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated downwards in the day, the bulls lightened up their positions, and the main contract was being shifted to a new month. The 03 contract closed down 0.64%. Baise has lifted the epidemic control in an orderly manner, the supply is expected to gradually recover, and the downstream consumer end will pick up seasonally, but the aluminum ingot community continued to accumulate last week.
The epidemic control in Baise, Guangxi has been lifted, and the market’s worries about the supply of local electrolytic aluminum and alumina have eased. According to a report by China News Agency, the production of more than 75% of the aluminum-related enterprises above designated size in Baise has returned to normal, and the upstream and downstream of the aluminum industry are producing in an orderly manner. The supply is continuous, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum is generally stable. In foreign countries, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still tense, and the price of gas and electricity is high, which may continue to affect the production of electrolytic aluminum abroad. In addition, SMM said that the import window of aluminum ingots continued to be closed under the condition of strong external aluminum prices and internal weak aluminum prices.
The demand side has experienced a seasonal recovery. Jinrui Futures has learned that the downstream has resumed work intensively, and the consumption situation has risen steadily, which has returned to the level before the Spring Festival. However, the current high aluminum price has restrained the rise of downstream demand except for rigid demand. According to Shanghai Metal Network, the spot market of aluminum ingots is generally traded today. In addition, it will still take some time for the demand of the northern terminal to recover.
The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate last week. According to SMM statistics, on February 21, 2022, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 1.081 million tons, which was 42,000 tons compared with last Thursday. The three places contributed the main increase, of which Wuxi accumulated 1.9 tons 10,000 tons, Gongyi accumulated 15,000 tons, Nanhai accumulated 8,000 tons, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Linyi were the same; Chongqing area went to warehouses 1,000 tons.
Regarding the later trend, Guotai Junan Futures said that on the whole, the global aluminum fundamentals are healthy, and the aluminum price still maintains a strong logical judgment. We expect that the price correction will not be deep in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to variables such as the evolution of subsequent social database data, the evolution of overseas energy crises, and domestic environmental protection policies.
Post time: Feb-22-2022