Overnight Shanghai aluminum main 2203 contract opened at 22645 yuan / ton, the lowest to 22360 yuan / ton, the highest price 22690 yuan / ton, closed at 22455 yuan / ton, down 230 yuan / ton compared to last year’s close, down 1.01%. Tuesday LUN aluminum morning opened at $3223/ton and closed at $3194/ton, down $34/ton, or 1.05%, from yesterday’s close.
Macro: (1) the recent market concerns about the situation in Russia and Ukraine was eased yesterday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said on the 15th, some of the Russian troops assembled on the Russian-Ukrainian border has completed military exercises to return to base, the Russian side said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to negotiate on the issue of Ukraine and security guarantees, adhere to the negotiations and diplomatic means to solve the problem. (bearish ★) (2) Yesterday the State Council all stressed the need to do a good job of prevention and control of the regular epidemic precisely, in the face of the complex situation at home and abroad, attach great importance to solving the problem of constraints in economic operation. Continue to do a good job of commodity supply and price stability, to maintain basic price stability. To ensure food and energy security, support coal and electricity enterprises to produce more power to the full force. Make preparations for further policies to help enterprises to alleviate difficulties and enhance economic development momentum.
Fundamentals: (1) Baise City yesterday issued a notice: February 15 from zero hours, lifting and Baise City outside the “not into not” control measures, high-speed rail, high-speed, air to resume normal passage, highway, waterway passenger transport to resume normal operations. (Short ★) (2) Inner Mongolia: comprehensive cleanup and cancellation of high energy-consuming industry tariff preferential policies, the self-provided power plants to levy policy cross-subsidies. 10 kV and above high energy-consuming industry users should participate in electricity market transactions, steel, electrolytic aluminum, ferroalloys, calcium carbide, polyvinyl chloride, coke and other high energy-consuming enterprises market transactions tariff float is not limited. Give full play to the role of price leverage to force the key energy-using industries to improve energy efficiency, eliminating backward to resolve excess capacity. (LIDO)
Spot: SMM East China quoted flat offer to 02 contract on Tuesday, closing at RMB 22680/ton, the actual market transaction was average, the upstream shipments were active, and the market was concentrated at RMB 22660-22700/ton. After the first trading session, the plate dips, the downstream receiving mood turns light, the transaction to the net price discount is dominated.
Summary: on the supply side, yesterday, Baise orderly lifting control, transportation gradually return to normal, the local electrolytic aluminum, alumina plant operating capacity is not expected to decline again; demand side, this week, aluminum ingot inventory growth slowed down, with seasonal consumption pick up, to library is expected to increase. Overall, the short-term aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high level of oscillation. Need to continue to pay attention to inventory changes, consumption recovery and Russia-Ukraine situation changes.
Post time: Feb-16-2022