Expectations pessimistic, under pressure down aluminum prices continue to be under pressure downward, Thursday closed at 20525 yuan / ton, down 1.05%. Macro, the global economic growth is weak, China and the United States economic data are not ideal, the recent situation on China’s economic growth brought negative impact is the focus of attention in the near future. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy has led to a stronger dollar, also makes the overall pressure on non-ferrous. Fundamentally, after the festival, aluminum ingot community library 1.033 million tons, compared with the festival before the accumulation of 46,000 tons, aluminum bar community library 128,600 tons, accumulation of 22,700 tons. Due to the May Day holiday superimposed on the impact of the epidemic, the downstream leading enterprises start rate fell sharply by 7.5 pct to 57.3%, each plate outside the primary aluminum alloy are weaker than the level of the same period in 20/21.
In the short term, aluminum prices or continue to run under pressure, but due to the average cost of the industry in about 1.8w, plus transportation costs, the current aluminum price background profit space is limited, the cost support is stronger. In the long term, according to estimates, there is still a shortage of supply in the second quarter, but whether aluminum prices can rebound one to see whether the epidemic can be quickly controlled, two to see whether the domestic policy can effectively boost the economy, to 5%-5.5% of the target. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the changes in the domestic epidemic and the landing of macro easing policies. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being.
Yangtze River aluminum price alu.ccmn.cn short comment: the dollar soared on nearly 20 years high, overnight Lun aluminum shock closed down 1.64%; overseas aluminum plant profits are high, domestic electrolytic aluminum production continues to release, but downstream consumption in general, this present aluminum or down.
Aluminum futures market]: the dollar soared on nearly 20 years high, overnight LUN aluminum shock weak, the latest closing offer 2936 U.S. dollars / ton, closed down 49 U.S. dollars, down 1.64%, the volume of 14907 hands increased by 1917 hands, position 604172 hands increased by 1076 hands. Evening Shanghai aluminum weak trend, the main month 2206 contract latest closing price 20310 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan, or 1.93%.
London Metal Exchange (LME) on May 5, the latest inventory of LUN aluminum reported 573,600 metric tons, down 375 metric tons, or 0.07%, from the previous trading day.
Changjiang Aluminium Net: Spot aluminium prices on May 5, spot AOO aluminium ingot prices on Changjiang Non-ferrous Network were quoted at 20720 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan; Chalco East China AOO aluminium ingot prices were quoted at 20720 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan. Overseas aluminum plant profits are high, due to soaring aluminum prices, Hydro’s adjusted EBITDA for January-March rose to 11.2 billion kroner ($1.19 billion), higher than the 5.2 billion kroner in the same period last year, also higher than analysts’ average expectations of 10.6 billion kroner; domestic electrolytic aluminum supply-side start-up capacity continues to rise and production continues to be released, but downstream consumption has not returned to Normal level, the performance of general, continue to wait and see procurement, the ascending water weakened, the current aluminum prices fell.
Post time: May-07-2022